Indicative (indicative figures)

The word indicative, when used in a business plan, feasibility study or sector report, is a deliberate qualifier signalling that a quoted number is a planning benchmark derived from industry averages, vendor budgetary quotes, or analogous reference projects — not a contractually firm price or a guaranteed outcome. Treating an indicative figure as a binding commitment is the most common cause of project budget overruns and disputed promoter agreements in the waste and bioenergy sectors.

Indicative figures appear in three places. Capital cost ranges: a CBG plant at 5 TPD shown as ₹15-22 crore is an envelope, not a quote — actual ratecards from MAN, Greenlane, Bright Biomethane or Indian fabricators land at specific points inside the range depending on technology choice, site conditions and lead times. Operating metrics: yields, OPEX per tonne, plant uptime and OPEX margins quoted in business plans are usually derived from peer plants under their specific feedstock, climate and management conditions. Market data: prices for finished CBG, recycled PET flake, copper cathode, FOM digestate, tyre pyrolysis oil and steel wire all fluctuate with crude, currency and commodity cycles, and any single-point quote is a snapshot rather than a guarantee.

The disciplined way to handle indicative figures is to treat them as input to sensitivity analysis. A bankable feasibility report should show base, downside and upside cases varying the key inputs by ±15-25% and check whether the project survives the downside case at the chosen debt-to-equity ratio. Indicative CAPEX should be re-verified through at least two competitive vendor quotations before financial closure. Indicative OPEX should be benchmarked against at least two operating Indian plants of similar scale and feedstock. Indicative offtake prices should be replaced with notified SATAT prices, signed Letters of Intent, or commodity index linkages before lenders sign term sheets. Skipping this step is what turns a 4-year payback projection into a 6-7 year reality and converts equity returns from 18% to single digits.